Two phases, two routes — yield today, value creation tomorrow
A simple calculator for the Santara Villas Ubud complex. Phase 1 already operates: 4 villas with cash-flow today. Phase 2 has 3 villas under shells — finish in ~3 months and you own a complex of 7 operating villas. Set the nightly rates and occupancy below — numbers update live.
These are illustrative scenarios for discussion. Not a yield guarantee, not a forward earnings statement, not a securities offer. Trailing financials and the editable Excel model are available under standard mutual NDA.
1 master villa (150 m², 2 bedrooms + private pool) and 3 townhouses (100 m² each, 1 bedroom + study + private pool). Different sizes mean different nightly rates — set them separately.
USD
Owner-stated working number. Ubud benchmark for 2BR + pool: $160–280.
USD
Owner-stated working number. Ubud benchmark for 1BR + study + pool: $95–150.
%
Ubud well-managed villa baseline: 60–70%. High season (Jul–Aug, Dec–Jan) reaches 75–85%.
%
Owner-stated working number. Reflects optimised operations: minimal OTA dependency (Booking ~15% only on the OTA share), self-management or compact team, PB1 tax through Pondok Wisata regime where applicable.
Phase 1 — annual results
Gross revenue / year—All 4 villas combined, before any costs.
Net operating income / year—After OpEx (commissions, taxes, staff, utilities).
Cap rate on $760k—Annual NOI ÷ Phase 1 ask price.
Simple payback—Years to recover $760k at this NOI.
Villa
Nightly rate
Occupancy
Annual revenue
Phase 2 — value-creation play (after finishing)
3 additional villas with structures, walls and roofs already built. Interior finishing CAPEX ~$100k, operating ~3 months later. After finishing the buyer can hold and rent, sell separately, or operate the whole 7-villa complex together with Phase 1.
USD
Same level as Phase 1 master, can lift to $160–180 with refurb tier.
USD
Owner-stated working number. Benchmark: $80–130.
%
Year 1 typically 50–55% (ramp-up), Year 2 stabilises at 60–70%.
%
Same operating regime as Phase 1 — optimised operations.
Net operating income / year—After OpEx, before debt or owner draws.
Cap rate on $440k all-in—$340k purchase + $100k finishing CAPEX.
Combined NOI (Phase 1 + Phase 2)—Operating yield of full complex once Phase 2 is open.
Villa
Nightly rate
Occupancy
Annual revenue
Long-term projection — nightly rates rise over time
Ubud nightly rates have risen ~3–5% per year on average over the past 5 years (Bali tourism recovery + Yellow Zone supply tightening). Set your own annual growth rate to project NOI forward.
% / yr
Conservative default 3%/yr. Bali tourism has historically grown 5–8%/yr; Penestanan wellness segment more.
Combined NOI projection — Phase 1 + Phase 2 operating
Year 1 NOI—Base year, both phases operating.
Year 3 NOI—After 2 years of compounded growth.
Year 5 NOI—Mid-term horizon for long-term holders.
Year 10 NOI—Long-term horizon · ~37% of leasehold consumed.
10-year cumulative NOI—Total operating profit over 10 years at this growth rate.
27-year cumulative NOI—Total over the remaining leasehold (extension not modelled).
Two phases, three exit paths
Phase 1 standalone · Phase 2 standalone
The complex can be acquired together at $1,100,000, or as two separately negotiable bundles. Different buyer profiles, different math, different timeline.
Phase 1 standalone · 4 villas operating
USD 760,000
Buyer profile: yield-seeker / passive holder. Wants cash-flowing real estate without construction risk — the complex already runs.
4 villas turnkey: 1× 150 m² master + 3× 100 m² townhouses, all with private pools
Active Booking.com listing, on-site staff, management company in place
Floor: long-term tenant — $84,000 NOI/yr → cap rate 11.0% on $760k
STR upside: see calculator above (typically $50–110k NOI/yr)
Closes 60–90 days · standard assignment of leasehold
Phase 2 standalone · 3 villas to finish
USD 340,000
Buyer profile: active operator. $100k of finishing CAPEX in 3 months gives you 3 villas worth ~$580k — equity gain plus operating yield, plus three exit routes.
3 villas with concrete structures, walls, roofs done: 1× 150 m² + 2× 85 m²
Total invested: $340,000 + $100,000 finishing = $440,000 all-in
Time to operating: ~3 months
Comparable finished value: ~$580,000+ → equity gain ~$140,000
Operating Year 2 NOI: see calculator above (typically $30–60k/yr)
Phase 2 — value-creation math (illustrative)
Step
Cash out / value in
Cumulative
Note
After finishing, the operator chooses one of three paths:
Path A · Sell finished
Quick equity exit
Sell the 3 finished villas at market comparables (~$580k) — exit ~$140k of equity gain in <6 months. Construction risk transferred, finishing risk priced and resolved.
Path B · Hold & rent
Compound the yield
Operate the 3 villas as STR. Year 2 NOI typically $30–60k/yr → 7–14% cap rate on $440k all-in. Build review history, brand and direct-booking funnel — exit later at higher multiple.
Path C · Operate all 7
Run the full complex
Recombine with Phase 1 (if owned together) — operate 7 villas as one boutique resort. Combined NOI scales with shared fixed costs, GOP margin lifts, brand presence consolidates. Exit value >$1.4M with stabilised operations.
Why this is faster than building from scratch. Construction-only replacement cost of 3 villas in Ubud Yellow Zone is ~$380–460k, plus 12–18 months timeline plus permit and structural risk. This bundle delivers structures complete and licensing resolved — only finishing remains, compressing the project to ~3 months of fit-out.
Combined deal alternative: a single buyer can acquire the full complex at $1,100,000 and capture both layers — operating Phase 1 yield + Phase 2 value creation + control of the 7-villa boutique resort end-to-end.